Epidemic Models

A user-friendly introduction to SIR, the work-horse model of disease spreads, and its variations.

  • Predicting hospitalizations and positive cases in Belgium

    As explained in a previous post COVID-SIR, epidemiologists have very performant models to understand the evolution of an epidemic. Probably the best known is the so-called SIR that allows to easily model the evolution of an epidemic relying on the reproduction number R0 and the infectious period of a pathogen.


    In this note, we will look at a very simple model to sketch how the COVID 19 epidemic could evolve over time (focusing on Belgium). We will use a model called SIR (and more precisely its Kermack-McKendrick version). This model could be complexified substantially to incorporate more specificities of the virus and of the transmission mechanism. To simplify things as much as possible, we however prefer to stick for the moment to its simplest version. In a future note we will propose a more elaborate model considering both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases and considering various age classes.

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Learning from the curve

An open source research project on COVID19 and economics. A collaboration between academics to reach out to policy makers and the general public.

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