As explained in a previous post COVID-SIR, epidemiologists have very performant models to understand the evolution of an epidemic. Probably the best known is the so-called SIR that allows to easily model the evolution of an epidemic relying on the reproduction number R0 and the infectious period of a pathogen.
The narrative around ther Covid-19 has evolved drastically across time. It was first "a bug that has no evidence to spread to humans" and "it is like another flu", to, "the Covid-19 pandemic is real"; "social shutdown is the only way to flatten the curve of diffusion of the disease", and now: "we have managed it, it is time to exit and to look forward".
In this contribution I analyse socio-economic and demographic correlates of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic across Belgian municipalities. I am interested in the onset of the epidemic, its intensity early on as well as the growth of contaminations in April.
A commentary from the GEES experts on the next steps
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