As explained in a previous post COVID-SIR, epidemiologists have very performant models to understand the evolution of an epidemic. Probably the best known is the so-called SIR that allows to easily model the evolution of an epidemic relying on the reproduction number R0 and the infectious period of a pathogen.
The narrative around ther Covid-19 has evolved drastically across time. It was first "a bug that has no evidence to spread to humans" and "it is like another flu", to, "the Covid-19 pandemic is real"; "social shutdown is the only way to flatten the curve of diffusion of the disease", and now: "we have managed it, it is time to exit and to look forward".
The outbreak of COVID-19, which is the most serious public health crisis in decades, is bringing complex challenges worldwide. Fighting this pandemic requires a better understanding of the so-called ‘risk factors’ associated with the spread of the virus. Identifying the driving forces favoring the diffusion of the virus is a topic of primary importance, not only to contain the rapid spread of the current pandemic, but also to prevent the occurrence of future pandemics.
The COVID-19 crisis hit hard both healthcare and economic systems. The objective of this short column is to try and identify how badly the pandemic may damage our long-term productive capacity. While it is clear that it will bring about an extremely deep recession, we argue that the effects will mainly be determined by the demand-side of the economy. This calls for aggressive demand stabilization policies.
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